The Investigative Journal’s weekly Fact-Check Spotlight tests notable public claims against primary sources: government data releases, official records, transcripts, and original documents. This week: the Health and Human Services secretary’s statement about America’s COVID-19 death rate, the president’s descriptions of the latest inflation data and of New Jersey’s voter rolls, the New Jersey governor’s account of how noncitizens ended up registered to vote, and a senator’s tariff-cost figure attributed to federal agencies.
Claim 1: “We have the highest death rate from COVID of any nation on Earth” — HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The claim. In an August 2 interview on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Kennedy told anchor Dana Bash: “We have the highest death rate from COVID of any nation on Earth.” When Bash challenged the statement, Kennedy repeated it — “What I said was accurate. We had the highest death rate from COVID” — before adding, moments later, “There are other countries that had higher, but you can argue about why we had that.” Video of the exchange was published by RealClearPolitics.
The evidence. The most comprehensive public mortality dataset, the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center mortality analyses, tracked deaths worldwide through March 10, 2023. Those data put the United States’ cumulative COVID-19 death rate at roughly 341 per 100,000 population — approximately 14th among countries — while Peru recorded the world’s highest rate at roughly 666 per 100,000, nearly double the U.S. figure. Country-level data compiled by Oxford University’s Our World in Data likewise show Peru with the highest cumulative confirmed deaths per capita. Several Eastern European countries, including Bulgaria and Hungary, also recorded higher per-capita rates than the United States.
The verdict. Not supported by the data. Two narrower statements would have been defensible: the United States recorded the largest absolute number of COVID-19 deaths of any country — more than 1.1 million in the Johns Hopkins data — and its per-capita death rate ranked at or near the top among large, high-income nations. But “highest death rate of any nation on Earth” is contradicted by the mortality records, and Kennedy himself acknowledged during the same interview that “other countries . . . had higher.”
Claim 2: “Inflation is dropping at the fastest rate in more than six years” and is “way down” — President Donald Trump
The claim. At the July 31 televised Cabinet meeting at Camp David, the president said, “This month, it was announced that inflation is dropping at the fastest rate in more than six years.” He made similar statements at a July 22 event in Marietta, Georgia (“Inflation is way down . . . it was announced just last week that inflation dropped by the largest amount in more than six years”) and a July 27 speech in Michigan.
The evidence. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ June Consumer Price Index release, published July 14, shows the all-items index fell 0.4 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis — which BLS called “the largest 1-month decrease since April 2020.” On the monthly measure, the president’s “fastest rate in more than six years” description matches the government’s own characterization.
The same release, however, shows the all-items index rose 3.5 percent over the 12 months ending in June. That is higher than the 3.0 percent annual rate recorded in January 2025, when the president took office, according to BLS 12-month CPI data — meaning headline inflation is not “way down” relative to what the administration inherited. Core inflation (all items less food and energy) tells a more favorable story for the White House: 2.6 percent year over year in June, down from 3.3 percent in January 2025.
Context matters on the monthly drop as well. BLS attributed June’s decline primarily to a 5.7 percent fall in the energy index, which followed the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Energy Information Administration data show West Texas Intermediate crude falling from roughly $100 a barrel in early June to about $71 by month’s end, with average gasoline prices declining from about $4.31 to $3.83 a gallon. Those prices have since reversed as hostilities resumed — gasoline averaged about $4.08 for the week ending August 3 — and the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s inflation nowcast projects a monthly increase, not another decrease, when July data are released August 12.
The verdict. Partly supported. The single-month statistic is accurate as stated. The broader suggestion that inflation is “way down” from the start of the term is not supported for headline CPI, and the June decline was driven largely by a volatile energy swing that current federal data suggest is already reversing.
Claim 3: “Thousands of votes” by “illegal aliens” in New Jersey, and 35,152 noncitizens registered — President Trump and DHS
The claim. After New Jersey’s July 21 disclosure of noncitizen registrations, the president said at the Marietta event: “They caught thousands of votes in New Jersey where illegal aliens were allowed to vote. Thousands and thousands of votes.” In a Truth Social post, he wrote: “35,152 is the new number just released by Homeland Security of non-citizens registered to vote in New Jersey. These are just the ones that got caught.” The Department of Homeland Security said on July 17 that preliminary reviews found there “may be as many as” 35,152 noncitizens registered in New Jersey, and on July 31 it announced enforcement actions in the state.
The evidence. New Jersey Gov. Mikie Sherrill announced July 21 that a review found 6,600 noncitizens were added to state voter rolls between June 2023 and June 2024 through the Motor Vehicle Commission’s registration system, and that the state’s preliminary investigation found up to 400 ballots cast, according to the governor’s statements reported by NBC News. Sherrill said the registrants “were registered as Democrats, Republicans, and the majority unaffiliated,” and that “we have no evidence at this time that any elections were swayed.” For scale, the state’s 2024 presidential margin exceeded 252,000 votes, per certified results compiled by the Associated Press.
The DHS figure of 35,152 is described in the department’s own release as a preliminary estimate of potential registrations — “may be as many as” — and the department has not published its matching methodology. Sherrill said the state asked DHS for the underlying evidence and, as of her remarks, had “received nothing back.” The Justice Department has demanded the registrants’ identities; the state has declined, and that dispute remained active this week. For broader context, the Heritage Foundation’s election fraud database — maintained by a conservative research organization — documents slightly more than 100 convictions nationwide for noncitizen voting or registration since 1982.
The verdict. Unsupported as stated. State records identify up to 400 ballots in the preliminary count — not “thousands and thousands of votes” — and the 35,152 figure is an unverified federal estimate that DHS’s own release frames as potential registrations rather than confirmed ones. The state’s independent review is ongoing, and final numbers could move in either direction; we will revisit this item if new records emerge.
Claim 4: A “serious software error” registered noncitizens “through no fault of their own” — Gov. Mikie Sherrill
The claim. At her July 21 announcement, Sherrill, a Democrat, said that “a serious software error” in the MVC system was responsible: “Some individuals indicated that they weren’t citizens and weren’t eligible to vote, but the software registered them anyway.”
The evidence. The system vendor, IDEMIA, publicly disputed that characterization. In a statement reported by Politico, the company said all 6,600 individuals answered “Yes” to registering and “No” to citizenship, that the software “performed according to state specifications,” that this information “was recorded correctly and always available to the MVC,” and that “at no point was a noncitizen ever marked as a citizen in the database.” The company said the state directed a software change in June 2024. The governor has retained an outside law firm to investigate, and the state is replacing the vendor.
The verdict. Disputed, pending independent review. Both accounts agree on a key point: the individuals answered truthfully and were registered anyway, which supports the governor’s “no fault of their own” description. Whether the cause was a software defect or a system functioning as the state specified is contested between the state and its contractor, and records available so far do not resolve it.
Claim 5: Tariffs cost families $1,700 per “an analysis from the Congressional Budget Office and the Treasury Department” — Sen. Elizabeth Warren
The claim. At a July 22 Senate Finance Committee hearing, Warren, a Massachusetts Democrat, told U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer: “Based on an analysis from the Congressional Budget Office and the Treasury Department’s own numbers, Trump’s tariffs cost families an average of $1,700.” Her office’s hearing release repeats the attribution.
The evidence. The $1,700 figure traces to a February 2026 fact sheet from the Joint Economic Committee’s Democratic minority staff, which estimated $1,744.75 in tariff costs per family between February 2025 and January 2026. The document describes the number as “Original JEC Calculations” that combine Treasury Department monthly revenue reports, Census Bureau population projections, and CBO estimates of how much of each tariff dollar is passed through to consumers. Neither CBO nor Treasury has published the per-family figure itself. At the hearing, Greer responded that he had not seen such Treasury numbers: “No one’s given them to me to look at.” The underlying inputs are official government data, and the methodology is disclosed; the headline number, however, is a congressional minority staff derivation.
The verdict. Misattributed. The estimate is built from official data and a disclosed method, but records indicate it is a Democratic committee staff calculation — not a finding “from the Congressional Budget Office and the Treasury Department.” The dispute sits inside a larger unresolved fight: after the Supreme Court ruled the administration’s IEEPA-based tariffs unlawful, refunds have flowed to importers of record, and, per Warren’s office, questions about whether consumers see any of that money remain open while litigation continues.
How TIJ Conducts Fact-Checks
The Investigative Journal does its own primary-source research. For each claim, we locate the original statement in full context — transcripts, official video, or the speaker’s own postings — and then test it against primary records: statistical releases from agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Energy Information Administration, official government announcements, state records, committee documents, and university research datasets. We link every source so readers can verify our work, and we do not adopt the conclusions of other fact-checking organizations. Where investigations are preliminary or records are in dispute, we say so and hold our verdicts open to revision. On right of reply: this article quotes each principal’s own on-record response — Secretary Kennedy’s on-air defense of his statement, Ambassador Greer’s hearing testimony, IDEMIA’s public statement, and the administration’s official releases — and TIJ welcomes corrections or additional documentation from any party named, which we will review and reflect promptly.
Featured image: The United States Capitol, Washington, D.C. Photo from the Carol M. Highsmith Archive, Library of Congress, Prints and Photographs Division — no known restrictions on publication.