Washington’s busiest data day of the summer produced dueling claims within hours. The Investigative Journal tested five of them against the federal record.
Wednesday, August 26, delivered two of the month’s most consequential economic releases at once: the Bureau of Economic Analysis published its July Personal Income and Outlays report, which contains the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve watches most closely, and its second estimate of second-quarter GDP, which held at an annualized 1.5 percent. Within hours, President Trump, House Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith, and the Democratic National Committee had each characterized the state of the economy — in ways that point in very different directions.
With ten weeks until the midterm elections, this week’s Fact-Check Spotlight examines five claims made on August 26, drawn from both parties. In each case, TIJ went to the primary datasets — the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Federal Reserve — rather than relying on secondhand characterizations. Every dataset is linked so readers can check our work.
Claim 1: President Trump — “We’ve really got them [prices] down”
The claim. In an August 26 interview with commentator Glenn Beck, as reported by Roll Call, President Trump said: “I inherited high prices … And we’ve really got them down.” He added that gasoline “prices are coming down very rapidly.”
The evidence. The Consumer Price Index release published by the administration’s own Bureau of Labor Statistics on August 12 shows the all-items index rose 0.1 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis and stands 3.4 percent above its level a year ago. The unadjusted CPI-U index reached 333.918 in July 2026; BLS index tables show it stood at 317.671 in January 2025, the month the president returned to office — a cumulative increase of roughly 5.1 percent since then. Scattered categories have declined over the past year, including dairy products (−0.5 percent), used vehicles (−1.9 percent), and medical care commodities (−2.7 percent), but the broad price level is higher than a year ago and higher than at the start of the term.
On gasoline specifically, the data show a small recent dip and a large annual increase. BLS records show the gasoline index fell 2.9 percent in July on a seasonally adjusted basis but is up 24.6 percent over the past twelve months, a rise that followed the disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz after the conflict with Iran began in late February. AAA’s daily survey, as cited in the Roll Call report, put the national average at $4.1014 per gallon on August 26 — down slightly from $4.1101 a month earlier, but up from $3.1864 on the same date last year.
The verdict. Not supported. Federal price data show consumer prices rising, not falling: up 0.1 percent in July, up 3.4 percent over the year, and up about 5.1 percent since January 2025. The gasoline claim contains a kernel of accuracy — pump prices have edged down from their midsummer peak — but a decline of less than one cent per gallon month-over-month, against a 29 percent year-over-year increase, does not match “coming down very rapidly.”
Claim 2: President Trump — “The meat, the beef, is starting to come down”
The claim. In the same interview, five days after announcing a plan to import foreign-raised beef, the president said beef prices are “starting to come down.”
The evidence. The BLS average-price series for 100-percent ground beef shows the national average at $7.180 per pound in July — the second consecutive monthly decline, according to the series. The same records show the average stood at $5.915 per pound in January 2025, meaning today’s price remains roughly 21 percent above where it was when the president took office. More broadly, the BLS meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index fell 0.7 percent in July but remains 1.9 percent above its year-ago level.
The verdict. Partly supported. The short-term direction is accurate — federal data show ground beef prices ticking down in June and July. The statement omits the level: beef remains dramatically more expensive than in early 2025, and two months of modest declines had, as of July, reversed only a small fraction of that run-up.
Claim 3: Chairman Jason Smith — “Manufacturing output and equipment investment are now at their highest level”
The claim. In an August 26 statement headlined “Manufacturing Booms,” Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith (R-Mo.) said that because Republicans made full expensing permanent, “manufacturing output and equipment investment are now at their highest level.” He also said the prior administration’s spending “caused the cost of living to rise over 20 percent,” and that core inflation is “holding in a tight range.”
The evidence. The Federal Reserve’s G.17 Industrial Production release shows manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in July — its fourth consecutive monthly increase, a genuine improvement. But the level tells a different story: the Fed’s manufacturing output index stood at 99.31 in July 2026 on a scale where the 2017 average equals 100. The index is below its own 2017 benchmark and well below the peaks it reached before the 2008 recession. It is not at its highest level on record, or even of the past decade. Equipment investment did contribute to the second quarter’s 1.5 percent growth, per the BEA release, and dollar-denominated investment routinely sets nominal records in an expanding economy — a context that makes “highest level” claims less meaningful than they sound.
Two other elements of the statement fare better. BLS index values show the CPI rose from 261.582 in January 2021 to 317.671 in January 2025 — about 21.4 percent — so the “over 20 percent” figure is supported, though economists attribute that inflation to a combination of pandemic-era supply shocks, fiscal spending under two administrations, and monetary policy, not to a single cause. And core PCE inflation was indeed steady at 3.3 percent in July, unchanged from June — a “tight range” that sits well above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target.
The verdict. Mixed. The claim that manufacturing output is “at its highest level” is not supported by the Federal Reserve’s own output index, which remains below its 2017 average. The 20-percent cost-of-living figure checks out arithmetically, with the causal attribution simplified. “Core inflation holding in a tight range” is accurate — at a level half again as high as the Fed’s target.
Claim 4: The DNC — “Prices in July surged by 3.7%, higher than expectations, and close to a three-year high”
The claim. In an August 26 release, the Democratic National Committee said new data showed “prices in July surged by 3.7%, higher than expectations, and close to a three-year high,” and cited July’s loss of 23,000 jobs with 103,000 in downward revisions.
The evidence. The 3.7 percent figure is the genuine BEA number: the PCE price index rose 3.7 percent from a year earlier in July. But “surged” implies acceleration, and BEA’s own prior release shows the annual rate was also 3.7 percent in June — the pace held steady rather than jumping, and the month-over-month increase was 0.2 percent. The employment figures are accurate: the BLS Employment Situation report shows payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, and May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000. One cautionary footnote: an earlier DNC release called June’s 2.7 percent personal saving rate the “lowest in four years”; BEA’s July report now puts the saving rate at 3.0 percent — a reminder that single-month readings move.
The verdict. Largely accurate on the numbers, overstated in the framing. The inflation and jobs figures match the federal record; describing an unchanged year-over-year pace as a July “surge” does not.
Claim 5: The DNC, citing Senate JEC Democrats — Americans have “spent $71.5 billion more on gas” since the Iran war began, “$604 in additional costs per family”
The claim. The same DNC release states that Americans have spent $71.5 billion more on gasoline since the conflict with Iran began, an average of $604 per family, citing a report from Democratic staff of the Joint Economic Committee.
The evidence. The direction of the claim is consistent with federal data — the BLS gasoline index is up 24.6 percent over the past year, and AAA’s published averages show pump prices roughly 92 cents per gallon higher than a year ago. But the specific dollar figures are a partisan committee staff calculation, not an official government statistic, and TIJ could not independently reproduce the $71.5 billion or $604 figures from public datasets before publication. Estimates of this kind depend heavily on assumptions about consumption volumes and the counterfactual price path.
The verdict. Unverified estimate. Federal price data support the claim’s direction — gasoline spending has clearly risen substantially — but the precise figures rest on committee staff assumptions that public records do not independently confirm, and readers should treat them as an estimate rather than a measured fact.
How TIJ conducts fact-checks
The Investigative Journal verifies claims against primary sources only: federal statistical releases, official records, and the speakers’ own published statements. We do not rely on, or aggregate, the work of other fact-checking organizations. Every figure in this article traces to a linked public dataset — the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federal Reserve’s G.17 release, and AAA’s published price survey — so readers can verify each verdict themselves. Where a figure cannot be independently reproduced from public records, we say so rather than guess. All parties examined here are public officials or national party organizations speaking on matters of public concern; their full statements are linked above, and TIJ did not solicit pre-publication comment. Any party quoted here who wishes to respond or dispute a verdict may contact the editorial desk through tij.news, and responses will be appended.
Featured image: Alabama Extension via Wikimedia Commons (CC0 public domain).